Invisus Manus - E2, 2019 according to A.C. Clarke, and polyamory carol
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E2, 2019 according to A.C. Clarke, and polyamory carol
E2
I'm catching up on my DVR queue. I just saw a program about Nobel peace prize winner Mohammud Yumus. He created a company Grameen Shakti (Rural Female "divine" Power) that gives microloans to women in Bangladesh. The company also trains women engineers to install solar panels in women's homes that run LED lights that children can read by at night. They also install biofuel processors that extract fertilizer and natural gas from chicken and cow dung that have allowed women to create their own businesses while stopping their use of kerosene and wood. The result is that the human rights of women in this Muslim country have dramatically improved. By enriching their family resources the children are more likely to become educated and the husbands are less likely to work in the city where they would acquire additional wives. As a result, women are providing a significant increase to the national economy and over 1 million homes are moving toward environmental sustainability. This series looks pretty good. Check it out at http://www.pbs.org/e2/episodes/202_energy_developing_world_trailer.html
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I've been reading Arthur C. Clarke's predictions for 2019. Here are a few:
Healthcare
1. Hospitals will use more holistic methodology and that wellness centers will be integrated into care. (already true and many hospitals are increasing revenue by making birthing centers like a spa hotel.)
2. Computer programs and diagnostic devices will provide some of the initial diagnosis and therapy options to physicians. 3. Patient records will be computerized. X-rays and CAT scans will be stored on the computer and projected to the patient's bedside. Computers will monitor doctor and nurses orders and warn against possible dangers. (We have already seen the computerized patient record. Several learning programs to help medical students have appeared but they are not yet sophisticated enough to guide therapy. The computer and palm pilot are integrated into the patient visit, but there are no tricorders yet. Radiology is available electronically as part of the electronic medical record. The computer monitoring of orders and medications is becoming more common with the computerized records.)
4. Surgeries will be either robot assisted or entirely done by robots. (For microsurgery and neurosurgery, robotic devices like the Da Vinci provide doctors will very fine control.)
5. Aging will be stopped by blocking an anti-death hormone. (This may be partially true.)
6. We will regularly transplant multiple organs from others. (I'd look to stem cell grown or cloned organs instead)
7. Family doctors will treat sexual desire problems with electrical stimulation of the pleasure center outside the skull. Drugs to enhance sexual performance and erection assistance devices like pumps or a pacemaker for the penile nerves will be available.
8. Sex organs will be able to undergo "reverse embryogenesis" and then develop into the opposite organ.
Transportation and Space
1. We will travel from U.S. to Australia using jet to get to space station, then rotate with the earth for 40 minutes and then fly back down. (Maybe Earthship Three?)
2. We will have a permanent space station and moonbase. (The first is true and the second is due for 2025).
3. Robots guided by humans and later independent robots supervised by humans will be used for space exploration. Self-replicating robots will set up a factory on the moon to build the moonbase. (The Mars rovers fit the first prediction.)
4. Cars will have microchips to monitor engine troubles and satellite navigation systems. Bodies will be made of dent-resistent plastic or composite. (All already true.)
5. High speed maglev trains will be commonplace. (True in Japan and Europe.)
Entertainment
1. Movie theatres will diminish as widespread high definition television gains popularity. Movies will cost $15 per person.
2. IMAX will not be used for commercial movie viewing. (wrong)
3. Computer generated animation and historical actors will replace some real actors. Robots may also replace actors.
4. Images will be directly projected onto viewer's retinas bypassing the need for screens. (Probably likely).
5. VHS will be replaced by lasercards containing gigabytes of video information in the form of holographic storage.
6. Entertainment will be broadcast by satellite or optic cables to viewers. More specialized programming channels like a travel channel, women's, kid's, sports channels, and perhaps psychotherapy will appear in addition to the big three. Viewers own images can narcissistically be substituted for actors.
7. Music and graphics will be produced electronically. Computers will be able to simulate the ability of historical composers and artists to provide new content.
8. Steroids and growth hormone will be prescribed by doctors to athletes as part of their training regimen. (That's happening but it's not a condoned part of the training.)
9. Olympic athletes brain waves and muscle patterns will be extensively studied to produce similar changes in other training athletes.
10. Some sports will be carried out in space like moon running, spaceminton, and the Space Cup with solar sails to race around the moon.
11. Near death experiences will become a type of entertainment. (There is an institute in VA that claims to be able to induce NDEs using sound waves.)
12. Space travelers will enjoy sex in zero gravity as a popular honeymoon destination. (I couldn't get NASA engineers to comment on this one when I visited.)
Economy
1. Aquaculture will be more widespread to support growing population. (True for some fish production).
2. The economy will be based on information rather than manufacturing, although skilled craftsmanship will still be desired for some produced goods. (This is already true.)
3. People will have continuous education throughout life that will be accessed through teleconferencing. (Online classes seem to be relevant to this prediction.)
4. Some public education will be provided by corporation sponsorship. (This is good if it is funded by corporations, but not so good if they dictate content.)
5. Telepresence through augmented vision glasses and "master gloves" will allow humans to remotely drive vehicles in space, under the ocean, or other hostile environments.
Education
1. The Library of Congress will be available on a single memory storage device. (Not yet but probably will be soon.)
2. All citizens of a particular city will receive computer access through local government. (The wired city concept is still being tested.)
3. Children will have companion computer nanny to help them learn and grow. (Diamond Age anyone? Sounds like a great match for the Millennials.)
Robots
1. Menial household tasks will be done by robots including vacuuming. (Roomba)
2. Factories will be run by robots so that conditions inside the factory don't need to be compatible with human needs including handling hazardous or radioactive materials. Robots may become unionized.
3. Homes and their appliances will be controlled by a robotic majordomo like Hal. Homes may read the moods/preferences of owners and adjust the environment to improve their mood and productivity. Meals will be programmed to be defrosted, cooked, and held at temperature until workers arrive home. Flooring and accessories will be adapted to robot maintenance. (Some of this has already happened, but the mood reading is interesting.)
4. Robocats and dogs will provide the companionship of animals without the need to feed or change litter. They could eliminate need to specially train dogs for the blind. (Simple versions of these exist, but still a long way to go to. The latter is Interesting.)
5. Robots will have complex vision apparatus to monitor many wavelengths outside the human visible spectrum. They will handle objects more appropriately by having a pressure-sensing mechanism like in human skin.
6. Robots will challenge our definition of racism and human rights as they get more sophisticated. We will be challenged to ensure that robots have a "thou shalt not kill" directive toward human beings. Rules like the three laws of robotics will be needed to ensure that humans and robots can live compatibly.
I still need to read the sections on crime, psychiatry, and war. There are a lot of interesting things we have already that he didn't predict in this book, like the Internet, YouTube, Ipods, etc., but Clarke is known for being a good futurist so I thought it would be interesting to see how many of his predictions come true.
On related note, I've been reading Ray Kurzweil's predictions for robot evolution. One is that we will have robots that have the complexity of a mouse brain by 2010. By 2020 they will be able to emulate one human brain. By 2060 one robot will be able to simulate the power of all human beings that have ever lived and by 2100 will exceed that. Individual robots will be able to instantaneously exchange knowledge with other robots through the internet so that all robots would be able to learn through the experiences of individual robots without the need for written or spoken language like humans. The computer "god" planet in David Zindell's "Neverness" crossed with the machines in the Dune series sounds like a good example of what this might look like. If Kurzweil's predictions come true, I think that robotics will fundamentally change humans' day-to-day experience more than any other technology and will probably happen overnight. We may see robots move from toys, to servants, to oracles/masters in the span of my lifetime. I wouldn't be surprised if different robot societies arise with distinct visions of the future role for humanity. I hope that we don't get caught in between them. I was also struck by the observation that a sentient program in a computer without connection to the outside world might be like trapping someone in solitary confinement for 1 million years. I could imagine an insane vengeful robot intelligence arising from a lab tech leaving a plug unplugged overnight.
The future of robots depending on human beings for energy ala the Matrix trilogy might not be so sinister if they were embedded in our clothing and used our body motion to generate power like a self-winding watch. Perhaps they could even combat obesity if we were required to move in order to power our cell phones and other wireless devices.
Tags: arthur c. clarke's 2019, e2, grameen shakti, ray kurzweil
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